CH Robinson has warned its customers to expect capacity shortages on certain lanes out of Asia in the second half of September.
The forwarder said that quarter-end shipments, technology-related cargo, and a pre-holiday export push could “narrow departure options during the second half of the month”, particularly on the transpacific and Asia-Europe trade lanes.
There will also be an export push ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival at the end of the month and China’s National Day holiday from 1-7 October.
The company added that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to affect airspace availability and routing decisions.
“Expect booking pressure to build during the middle of September and intensify ahead of the holiday period,” CH Robinson said.
“On affected Asia origins, the first indication of tightening may be earlier cutoffs and fewer workable flight options rather than an immediate market-wide rate increase.”
However, the company added that the tightening of capacity in September does not reflect a broad-based increase in general cargo demand, other than AI infrastructure.
The biggest impact will be on services out of China, CH Robinson said, with market conditions outside of China depending on how airlines adjust freighter rotations or commercial allocations toward major China gateways.
“Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, and Thailand should therefore be treated as origin-specific watchpoints,” the forwarder said.
“Each may see quarter-end or technology-related demand, but the timing and degree will vary. Belly capacity, airline allocations, local cargo mix, and gateway performance will determine which origins tighten first.”
General cargo will be the first affected by a tightening of capacity, with later flights or less direct services a likely outcome.
Rates are also likely to rise: “On affected Asia export lanes, spot rates could begin to firm from mid-September as preferred flights fill,” the forwarder added.
“The change is unlikely to be uniform. Rates may rise first on the most sought-after flights rather than across every departure on the route.”
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